The next Fed Meeting could bring a big surprise. Perhaps, they elect NOT to lower rates by as much as anticipated. Then what? Will the FX market interpret that as the turnaround point? Will that be the catalyst that puts the lid on the falling dollar?

I do agree with some of the comments that perhaps the falling dollar has been arranged by the Fed in the first place. But, on the other hand that may be giving more credit than is due. That would have taken quite a bit of long term thinking.

It might be that the market was taking us that way anyway and at some point someone came up with the idea that maybe it would work in the US's favor so they went along with the inevitable.


There are many factors that have contributed to the weak dollar. But, like most commodity markets eventually the move feeds on itself for no logical reason and then ends with the classic "spike" blow off top that Jamie talks about. We may be at the end of that cycle now. It is always hard to tell when you are in the midst of the action.