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  #131 (permalink)  
Old 03-27-2008, 08:45 AM
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Originally Posted by wall View Post
That's where I went wrong several times lately as rallies seem to be very sticky and pullbacks are often delayed but most of the time still occur and take us by surprise.
i do not believe in "overbought" anymore, this is why I stick to fundamentals & no more technical analyses before the market stabilise...
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  #132 (permalink)  
Old 03-27-2008, 08:46 AM
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Originally Posted by samuel View Post
It looks like we are either going to see a massive double top put in and a huge drop OR a tremendous breakout to all time new highs very shortly. What other alternatives are there at this point? Seems cut & dry at these levels. AND yes I am amazed at where this strength is coming from all of the sudden. It is like doing all this with really no new major backround news. Maybe that's scariest of all.
OIL 101.55 - 106.50 in one day

there is your reason, now why oil went up so far in one day I do not know or understand but it will explain the rally today, OR maybe the rally explaines the rise in OIL??
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  #133 (permalink)  
Old 03-27-2008, 08:48 AM
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Don't understand why all the mystery about today's move. Just look at the Econ Calender and you'll have your answer.
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  #134 (permalink)  
Old 03-27-2008, 08:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rocky View Post
i do not believe in "overbought" anymore, this is why I stick to fundamentals & no more technical analyses before the market stabilise...
I agree with part of what you're saying but I've seen too many times when after positive data a currency went exactly the opposite way. On the other hand, from my experience, severely overbought/oversold studies will prompt a bounce or pullback most of the time, if not immediately, then in a day or two.
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  #135 (permalink)  
Old 03-27-2008, 08:51 AM
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There's no question these markets are whipping around a bit as the dollar continues to sell off. But the problem is that it's happening on extremely light volume.

The lack of volume decreases the predictability as the currency will trade ”out of character“ making short term trading a difficult undertaking
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  #136 (permalink)  
Old 03-27-2008, 08:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by simarik View Post
I agree with part of what you're saying but I've seen too many times when after positive data a currency went exactly the opposite way. On the other hand, from my experience, severely overbought/oversold studies will prompt a bounce or pullback most of the time, if not immediately, then in a day or two.
have been caught a couple of time recently at being right too soon in anticipating those overdue pullbacks, mostly in gone crazy eur/cad but also on eur/usd and aud/usd.Looks like there is something out of the usual in
this market.For instance on eur/cad the pullbacks were so fast that they
left only long tails behind on the lower TL, some in a matter of half an hour,
as out of a spring box. But i keep trying to convice myself that the fasterit
goes up the faster it goes down... but no sure way to tell when if price
does not seem to care about obvious barriers like the long term down TL that should have halted, at least for amoment the rise of eur/cad , with oil at
111. and the still better than average fundamentals of Canada. I just Heard
om the french tv tonight that the government there has reduced the
forecast of growth by half and large businesses complaint since over a year
of the strenght of eur but Trichet pours oil in the fire and the beat goes on...
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  #137 (permalink)  
Old 03-27-2008, 08:55 AM
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iam on the edge of a chair here
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  #138 (permalink)  
Old 03-27-2008, 08:58 AM
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Y,what did u do ,a long?
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  #139 (permalink)  
Old 03-27-2008, 08:59 AM
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I'm short at 1.5830...with a tight stop...I'm a bit of a chicken at these levels. I still think it could go up in a heartbeat.
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  #140 (permalink)  
Old 03-27-2008, 09:00 AM
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I'm short @.83175 as well, hopefully this does the same as last night!!
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