Forex

Hi Khan
Glad you took some of your profit yesterday.
I particulary like Maratha's signature to describe the situation here.
'The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent'.

Forgot the simple reason you yearn for will come when German business stops functioning. There will be a lag of a few months usually before Euro will begin to turn trend.
The problem is the world can not live without a Porsche, Mercedes, VW, BMW or indeed Fresenius!
There are just too many rich people on this earth with wants to fill!

38% retractment from the new high at suport level 1.5612-16. The London opens soon and I believe its postioned to rally but in the mean time we took proffits on the last 38% advance. It NEVER goes exactly the full standard % up or down but with in a few pips usually. I would head caution after the Brits and middle east are done buying. They may postion the Eur/USD to rally short and take profits off the USD aimlessly believing the EUR shouldnt be worth as much as the GBP? At the end of the days trading tomorrow though look at a rally north on Sunday when more dumping of the USD and bids on the EUR take place by the Asians. Bushes talk about the econamy will have worn off and wallstreed wont be around to save it like it did on thursday. It looks like a year at best before the bottom for the USD acording to well respected world economist they said an hour ago. To little to late. The desitions seem to have been made already that the USD will never be the same again. Its just going to be hard getting used to the dollar not being the currancy that the world messured there strength against.The bail out of the housing market is being done buy other countries. That means though not an imigrant situation it does mean that quite a bit of the real estate is going to foriegn investment. So its like the uS is selling parts of there country to recover. That cant be good? Looks like the Brits want to pay less for the EUR in over sold territory. It should be interesting to see what they bid there compation to? Because of there intrests and tyes to the USD and the EUR,S relentless bid to be #1 at this stage it should be an interesting session. Should be a push pull between the MiddleEast and London. But those Aribs have a lot of free cash!!!

It is true that Eu/US will down by today...from morning star candle pattern...
Pls advice

Evening star not morning

Khan,for now your prediction works out fine. We saw 1,5650, what could have been a (temporary) top. Right now its 1,5580, so there are some folks that can take some 50 to 70 pips profit here. Depending on your trading horizon ofcourse....
Any idea what level needs to break for the move down to gain momentum?
Today can be volatile. Friday, G7 nerves, CPI. Take care and good luck.

I know what the charts are saying but have you factored in the fact that the middle east is dumping there US reserves along with China and Japan? This puts a new twist on things I think. If {there} national banks are bailing out of a greenback to get what they can for it that means there currency will be worth more to them than it has in the past because most foreign banks based there treasury reserves on the strength of the Greenback. Today I heard japan is trying for 50% or less and are at 68% now. Back in Aug they were at 90%!! The detachment of there reliability of the west is weakening as to is the middle east and the EUR. I have head the EUR wants a very strong differential to the US like the rail. The middle east India ect...like the EUR over the USD. And Japan is trying be less reliant of the Greenback. That means a new King of currencies is trying to make the thrown!? Which will it be is the question. The pound is most stable the EUR is fighting to reign supreme over the JPY. As the demand for USD weakens what would this mean for the pars? I think this is a very relevant scenario. The more I watch my screens and listen to the 20 news feeds from around the world in my station central at home the more I see slowly but surly this happening. Whats your thoughts on this?

'm glad you bring up the other side, the fundamental side. I personally rarely consider nor trade based on fundamental data so my analysis may not be much use to you, and that's understandable. I personally believe that people and crowds move the markets, and therefore crowd psychology and sentiment ultimately tell us where the market will go. Elliott Wave Principle states that there is a distinct pattern in these moves. With that in mind, we're in the final throws of a large wave 3 which means dollar capitulation should rule the day. Many things you say, along with the daily barrage of horrible news feeds hammering the dollar and hoisting gold just contribute to the fact that the dollar is forming some sort of bottom because sentiment is at an absolute extreme low. I believe that once something is beaten to a pulp and it's lying there bloody and unconscious and no one wants it...............that's when it's time to buy it!

Also, the dollar is about to embark on a large 4th wave rally which is at the end of a long wave 3 decline so the move would have to come as a big suprise to the large majority who will get caught trying to continue riding that wave 3. I respect your viewpoint, and in the long run that will rule the day as I see the dollar continuing much lower in the long term. But for now, dollar is oversold and needs to recover and should gain over 1000 pips against the euro soon. I know it may sound like I'm blowing off the specifics of your question, but I purposely block out the details of the fundamental issues surrounding the dollar. I personally just don't find much use for them as what's really important to me is the "crowd's reaction", and that can only be seen in the charts and EWP.

With that said, I'm looking for a dollar bottom. Perhaps a sharp reversal can occur today, however it might happen next week when surrounding the Fed meeting.

Alright, taking fresh short around this level and adding near 1.5700. let us see its roof.

think that a lot of the differences of opinion between traders stems from a time frame horizon gap. Sometimes we are speaking in a different dialect. Same language but just from a different part of town. While one trader is willing to sit on a 100-200 pip loss to receive the ultimate prize of the 1000 pip move, others are only willing to trade with very tight stops and minimum profit expectations. Both good but different.

I have had this discussion with other friends/traders. I have one friend that trades in and out in micro seconds scalping 1/4 pt's in the S&P and basis his trading on fundamental news that may or may not effect the market for weeks or months. Go figure. Makes no sense to me. But, who am I to criticize? In my opinion that kind of trading should be hard core charts and nothing else.

1.5680 very tough resistance to just ride through but today's event was huge and it could be what it takes for the EUR not pause. CHF seems intent to break parity and if it does EUR will follow.

Bush speeches haven't been helpful either and he is giving one. An eventful Friday, luckily am all out and square and staying that way. Wouldn't want to be exposed to anything during the weekend as prices might just open wildly.