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Old 06-30-2008, 02:23 AM
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Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 1,685
Smile Technical Analysis - Does It Really Work

In the opinion of myself and many others, technical trading is the best way to
trade commodities. I could care less about the news! That’s a bold statement,
so let me explain why I say that. By the time you read or hear the news, it’s
already happened. You see, you and I are on the bottom of the news chain. If
you think otherwise, I’m sorry—you’re wrong!
To give you an example, as I was writing this, the price of gold dropped
because some countries were “dumping,” or selling off, their gold reserves.
There were people who knew this was going to happen beforehand. These
people took advantage of this information and sold Gold (went short), because
they knew that when these countries started to dump their Gold supply, the
price would go down. So, by the time you hear about it on the news, it’s too late
to do much about it. However, if you had been watching the charts, you would
have seen the price start dropping and could have made a trading decision,
based on technical rather than fundamental information.
Also, fundamental traders have to be aware of the weather patterns around the
world and how they might effect production. They also have to be aware of
world “inventory,” and who’s dumping product on the market, etc. It would be
a full-time job just to keep up with one commodity, much less with dozens that
you might want to keep an eye on.
There are times, however, when certain fundamental information can be
incorporated into your trading. The study of seasonal patterns is one thing that
is not difficult to learn and can prove helpful at times. I have included a
section on “Seasonals” in the Reference Section.
Now, on the other hand, we have technical analysis. I love the charts! I feel
they tell you almost everything you need, once you understand how to read them.

You’re going to learn a lot about technical trading in this course, and I hope you
can master it. It’s not rocket science, it’s an art— but it’s not as complicated as
you might think.
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