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what to do with your
excess income and wealth. When you invest, you use today’s dollars to purchase assets that generate future cash flows in the form of annual income (dividends, interest, rental payments) and price appreciation over time. We assume that you have fulfilled your consumption needs, however extravagant or spartan they may be; have purchased sufficient insurance to take care of potential catastrophes; have saved enough in a money market or savings account to take care of financial emergencies; and now must allocate your wealth among different investments. We consider only passive financial investments—ones that do not require you to make operating decisions, such as a personal business in which you control the hiring and firing of personnel, or the ownership of a rental property where you may contend with late-night calls regarding broken water heaters or leaking toilets. Finance is the study of why, how, and whether to invest in projects, ventures, or stocks that have uncertain (risky) cash flows to be received in the future. The decision to buy or sell any investment or stock should be based upon three cash-flow-related criteria: a conservative projection of the amount (rate of return) of the cash flows, the probable timing of the cash flows, and a reasonable assessment of the probability or risk associated with receiving the cash flows. Once you esti- 4 STREETSMART GUIDE TO VALUING A STOCK mate the amount, timing, and risk, you use financial techniques to determine the true value of the investment or stock. When you consider an investment in real estate, each property’s location makes it a unique asset. This is not so in the stock market. Shares of common stock of a company are identical2 and plentiful. Cisco has over seven billion shares outstanding, and after a stock split in January of 2003, Microsoft has over ten billion shares. When Sarah buys 100 shares of Cisco through her online broker, it doesn’t matter if the seller is Lehman Brothers, the Christian Brothers, or the Blues Brothers—the shares are identical from an ownership perspective. The world’s major stock markets are extremely liquid. Shares of thousands of companies trade on a day-to-day, minute-to-minute basis, with prices reported for all to see. |
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