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When you try to make money trading, do you ever stop to wonder where
your expected profits will come from? Is there money in the markets because of higher company earnings, or lower interest rates, or a good soybean crop? The only reason there is money in the markets is that other traders put it there. The money you want to make belongs to other people who have no intention of giving it to you. Trading means trying to rob other people while they are trying to rob you. It is a hard business. Winning is especially difficult because brokers and floor traders skim money from losers and winners alike. Tim Slater compared trading to a medieval battle. A man used to go on a battlefield with his sword and try to kill his opponent, who was trying to kill him at the same time. The winner took the loser's weapons, his chattels, and his wife, and sold his children into slavery. Now we trade on the exchanges instead of doing battle in an open field. When you take money away from a man, it is not that different from drawing his blood. He may lose his house, his chattels, and his wife, and his children may suffer. An optimistic friend of mine once snickered that there are plenty of poorly prepared people on the battlefield: "Ninety to ninety-five percent of the brokers don't know the first thing about research. They don't know what they're doing. We have the knowledge, and some poor people who do not have it are just giving the money away to charity." This theory sounds good, but it is wrong - there is no easy money in the market. There are plenty of dumb sheep waiting to be fleeced or slaughtered. The sheep are easy -but if you want a piece of their meat, you've got to fight some very dangerous competitors. There are mean professionals: American gunslingers, English knights, German landsknechts, Japanese samurai, and other warriors, all going after the same hapless sheep. Trading means battling crowds of hostile people while paying for the privilege of entering the battle and leaving it, whether dead, wounded, or alive |
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