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You may feel intense joy when prices move in your favor. You may feel
angry, depressed, and fearful when prices go against you, and you may anxiously wait to see what the market will do to you next. Traders join crowds when they feel stressed or threatened. Battered by emotions, they lose their independence and begin imitating other group members, especially the group leader. When children feel frightened, they want to be told what to do and look up to their parents. They transfer that attitude to teachers, doctors, ministers, bosses, and assorted experts. Traders turn to gums, trading system vendors, newspaper columnists, and other market leaders. But, as Tony Plummer brilliantly pointed out in his book, Forecasting Financial Markets, the main leader of the market is price. Price is the leader of the market crowd. Traders all over the world follow the market's upticks and downticks. Price seems to say to traders, "Follow me, and I will show you the way to riches." Most traders consider themselves independent. Few of us realize how strongly we focus on the behavior of our group leader. A trend that goes in your favor symbolizes a strong, bountiful parent calling you to share a meal or risk being left out. A trend that goes against you symbolizes an angry, punishing parent. When you are gripped by these feelings, it is easy to overlook objective signals that tell you to exit. You may feel defiant, or bargain, or beg forgiveness-while avoiding the rational act of accepting your loss and getting out of a losing position. |
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