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Ask most traders why prices went up, and you are likely to get a stock
answer-more buyers than sellers. This is not true. The number of trading instruments, such as stocks or futures, bought and sold in any market is always equal. If you want to buy a contract of Swiss Francs, someone has to sell it to you. If you want to sell short a contract of the S&P 500, someone has to buy it from you. The number of stocks bought and sold is equal in the stock market. Furthermore, the number of long and short positions in the futures markets is always equal. Prices move up or down because of changes in the intensity of greed and fear among buyers or sellers. When the trend is up, bulls feel optimistic and do not mind paying a little extra. They buy high because they expect prices to rise even higher. Bears feel tense in an uptrend, and they agree to sell only at a higher price. When greedy and optimistic bulls meet fearful and defensive bears, the market rallies. The stronger their feelings, the sharper the rally. The rally ends only when many bulls lose their enthusiasm. When prices slide, bears feel optimistic and do not quibble about selling short at lower prices. Bulls are fearful and agree to buy only at a discount. As long as bears feel like winners, they continue to sell at lower prices, and the downtrend continues. It ends when bears start feeling cautious and refuse to sell at lower prices |
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