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A simple MA changes twice in response to each piece of data. First, it
changes when a new piece of data is added to the moving average. That is good-we want our MA to reflect changes in prices. The bad thing is that MA changes again when an old price is dropped off at the end of the moving average window. When a high price is dropped, a simple MA ticks down. When a low price is dropped, a simple MA rises. Those changes have nothing to do with the current reality of the market. Imagine that a stock hovers between 80 and 90, and its 10-day simple MA stands at 85 but includes one day when the stock reached 105. When that high number is dropped at the end of the 10-day window, the MA dives, as if in a downtrend. That meaningless dive has nothing to do with the current reality of the market. When an old piece of data gets dropped off, a simple moving average jumps. A simple MA is like a guard dog that barks twice - once when someone approaches the house, and once again when someone walks away from it. You do not know when to believe that dog. Traders use simple MAS out of inertia. A modem computerized trader is better off using exponential moving averages. |
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