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Stock and futures traders used to live like two separate tribes. They traded
different markets and used different analytic tools. The wall between them began to crumble after stock index futures were created in 1982. Both tribes rushed to trade them. An astute trader owes it to himself to master the tools of both tribes. Shrewd stock traders use Stochastic, moving averages, and other tools of futures analysts. Futures and options traders can time their stock index trades better by using stock market indicators. They include the New High-New Low Index (probably the best leading indicator of the stock market), the Traders' Index (TRIN), and several others. How to Construct NH-NL The New High-New Low Index (NH-NL) tracks the numbers of market leaders. It measures the number of stocks that have reached new highs or lows for the year on any given day. The stocks on the list of new highs are the leaders in strength, and the stocks on the list of new lows are the leaders in weakness. NH-NL confirms trends when it rallies or falls in gear with prices. It identifies tops and bottoms in the stock market when it diverges from prices. The New High-New Low Index measures daily differences between new highs and new lows. The New High-New Low Index is easy to calculate by hand, using information from the Market Diary section of most major newspapers. NH-NL = New Highs - New Lows New highs and new lows are reported by most data services in the United States. Make sure that your data vendor calculates new highs and lows over a 52-week period. Some use the ancient "calendar method" and calculate new highs and lows going back only to January. Plot the New High-New Low Index as a histogram, with a horizontal reference line at zero level. On the days when there are more new highs than new lows, NH-NL is positive and plotted above the centerline. On the days when there are more new lows than new highs, NH-NL is negative and plotted below the centerline. If the numbers of new highs and new lows are equal, NH-NL is zero. |
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