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The spike top and its inverse, the spike or V-bottom, is indicative of
a panic rush to buy or sell, generally due either to greed or fear or a combination of the two. The panic pushes prices to an extreme when, in fact, the overriding market momentum is in the opposite direction. Sugar in late 1975 exhibited such a spike formation (see Figure 3A-1). In a topping formation, buyers rushed into the market in fear, either panicked to cover a losing short position or afraid that sugar would disappear forever. The sellers delayed liquidating their positions because of greed, that is they hoped the price would continue rising until the market was so overdone to the upside that it crashed of its own weight. As is often the case with geometric formations, the spike was accompanied by a traditional bar reversal pattern, in this case an island reuersal. In an uptrend, an island reversal is defined as a pattern in which a market gaps higher and then follows a bar that gaps to the downside, leaving a lone bar or “island” above the market. The reverse is true at a market bottom. As a general rule, the bar sitting above the market will open and close in the lower half of the bar’s range, while at a bottom, the open and close will be in the upper half of the bar’s range. |
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