Forex

The 25 level in the VIX is holding, keeping the 25-30 range intact so it is likely we will be bouncing around in this range again like we saw late January / early February, signaling the next probable move is higher.

Extremely choppy price action in Asia dominated by movements in the USD pairs gave me concern so I decided to book 65 pips - interest on the fall below 200.

I think I'm going to be focusing on USD pairs for a couple days baring major changes in risk sentiment. People are really unsure about the direction of the USD as seen by the wild swings lately and this makes for really choppy trading in the JPY crosses, which I'd prefer to avoid.

Like you I think this market is so very hard to gauge. I closed shorts @200 as well and am waiting for an opportunity to add a trade to my 198.30. If the USD goes down, looking at 99.65 and 99.30 as resistance. If that happens we go down and find an entry point. I believe the trend is temporarily up heading for the 208 to 212 area so I would avoid taking shorts, IMHO.

Yes, market seems to want to ignore bad news... after all, it had been pricing in risk of a total collapse of the financial system.

I think we will get more information tomarrow

Dear all,

Don't like the pair staying above 200...closed the short at 200.50 (-25 PIPs)...not sure if I see a trade currently...so will wait on the side...

At the moment we seem to be in this very tight range. 199 is the low and just now it has breached 201 for the very first time. There seems to be no clear signal for an entry point. Waiting for an entry point. Do you saw anything that I don't?

No, since Mon I haven't seen anything concrete either way. Just a few opportunities for quick scalps....that I missed of course. The dailies aren't revealing any secrets either. I'm seeing both negative and positive divergences on all time frames, so indecision is the game.

Hi sunny,

The only thing that I see is we are near a nice big breakout....wish I knew which direction!

Though the chances of an upside breakout are slightly more than the downside if we stay out of the bad news...the upside may be shaky beyond 204, but if UK news comes good on Friday, we very well might shift to 205+ area.

Basically that is what I see at the moment--indecision. But I agree that a break above 201 that is confirmed by a move above 201.78 (high after the March lows) should confirm that we are moving higher. But I see a target range higher than you, as I believe we could go to the 208 - 212 range before another leg down.

I believe that the catalyst to take us down will be very poor NonFarm next Friday. So, let's see how high we go before then. Everything should begin to flatline next Wed and Thurs ahead of NonFarm. So that give us about 5 trading days before it flatlines.

like you, awaiting what I consider a good entry based on what the market provides.