Forex

Good idea. Maybe I should try this myself and stayed away today. Back to the beginning we go

Dear Samuel,
I won't call the spike low as breaking of the support...we need at least one 4-hr candle close below 200 to call the support broken. GBPJPY has this naughty habit of snaring in shorts/longs on 'break' only to reverse sharply...

Dear bradrich,
Indeed...that's what makes the market!

Rahul, what Chart you using ... i am using fxcm trading station i couldn't find 4hr time frame

Off topic... I'm looking at EUR/USD and thinking, that breakout a few weeks ago would have been a nice buy and hold trade... over 200 pips/week and not something you have to constantly watch like GBP/JPY or even GBP/USD. You could even trade around the position with plenty of occasions of Dollar strength. And yet, a top still seems no where in sight. CFTC positioning data still shows low number of longs and SSI still bullish. Why do I even mess around with the Geppy, sometimes I wonder... it's so incredibly volatile and difficult!

Dear Stephen,
Yup, I noticed that divergence also. Will be waiting on Sun for signals to buy. Could you pls expain what you mean by "capitulation" and it being key for a bottom?
Thanks

The "capitulation" is the effect of "herd mentality". It is key for tops and bottoms. Very similar to the ongoing housing problems. For instance, the top of the housing market while signaled by many factors had a psychological driver. This expired when no more credit worthy buyers showed up to buy over-priced assets. The last of the last had showed up, making a significant top. You know, like it was never going to stop. Similarly, when you put this on a chart, and use wave theory, you get a similar syndrome. I have been anticipating a signal that wave 5 of 3 or C is nearing completion. The price action today happened exactly as I described in my post this morning. I was warning of the psychological tax that trading would have on all of us. You can see the bleeding in the posts. The significance of retails getting their longs shoved down their throats may not be over...but we are very close. All the targets for a 5th wave have been met...we will head higher next week, gauranteed! While longer term a key bottom has yet to be made, the selling is exhausted for now and can be counted in 5 waves from 241.36 on the daily. This sets up a complete A-B-C scenario, which is either a correction to the longer term uptrend or is only 3 waves in a 5 wave decline. That is the topic for another discussion. As it is, we have finished a C wave that has broken many key technical levels across the board. That is what a C wave does. In fact if you look at key reversal patterns, on shorter time frames this happens all the time. Price gets extended over several negative or positive consecutive hours, days, minutes, and then reverses.

Ok, that makes sense. I'll study the charts later to see if I can find the waves from 241.36 and the A-B-C.
Thanks again

Thanks for the great insight, much appreciated.

Wave this Wave that, its all horse raddish. Come now, you really don't believe that stuff... Any one at midnight New York Time could have taken three darts, yes just three darts and tossed them at a chart and mapped out a downward move late in the day for GbpJpy. This isn't rocket science you know...

lol Just joking guys...

Really, sorry to hear some of you lost money. Trading GbpJpy can be hard and taxing at times. Hopfully next week will be a better week for all.

Actually, I beleive there is a very scientific repetative indirect and direct price correlation within any static time frame...it's called "eeny-meeny-miney-mo, catch a tiger by the toe...." Just kidding, LOL, sort of!