Forex

Stephen,

We finally saw that capitulation to 200 today. I still can't believe I missed it! Had my head in the sand. I suppose that's why it happens - no one suspects it. Hard to say if it's enough. VIX spiked to 33 and closed at the high. 30s are hard to maintain for more than a couple days but this is an incredible time. SSI for USD/JPY still seems incredibly bearish. I think my mid to low 90s view is coming to fruition. The Fed has no choice but to continue cutting aggressively. I was thinking 2% would be the bottom and we were so close to pulling out of this mess this morning, but damn, if they don't go straight to 2 on Tuesday or do SOMETHING like buy CDOs outright, all hell is going to break loose. GBP/USD probably continues higher in choppy fashion but even if it goes to 2.08, that puts GBP/JPY in mid to low 190s.

Good question about whether long term this is a wave C correction or wave 3 of 5 wave decline. What would determine this to you? The extent of the bounce after this round of capitulation is over

All I will ask you is : What do you believe will happen in the second half of this year? That is your answer. It is too far out to tell, but things could go right..!

I've found the problem with other currencies is that they move tooo sllloooww. I've found there's more opportunities with geppy if you can figure it out how not to get whipsawed around. You could always try the slower pairs and "set and forget" while you learn to tackle geppy at the same time. That may give you some piece of mind and you'll always feel that you're in a trade so that you don't feel "forced" to get into any trade that comes along in geppy. This is also a big problem for me...I always felt that I should be in a trade just to be trading. A big part of trading is knowing when not to trade and just because you're not in a trade, doesn't mean that you're not "working" or "being productive". Success belongs to the most perservering!If all these other traders here on this forum (and others) are being successful, we can be too! The only difference is that they may have been doing this a little longer than us, and they never gave up! For what it's worth, there's my pip-pep talk for the week! NEVER SURRENDER!

Rahul

thanks for the monthly chart. Good to keep in mind the longer term here and it's striking how similar the declines are.

I've been thinking 90 on USD/JPY and 190 on GBP/JPY are very strong support areas and offer the best chance to repel a market meltdown. 32/33 on VIX is high but it has been higher like 38 or so in August, meanwhile things are much worse though admittedly also much cheaper. Still, didn't it drop like 1000 pips then in just a few days?

Next week is big (don't we say that every time, and if we don't, an event makes it big) with the Fed, quadruple witching, and broker earnings. If any week could get us there is it this one. Here is how I think it could play out:

Monday - Spike lower as Asia and Europe react, Bear Stearns earnings moved up from Thursday to Monday - they will be terrible but a takeover could be announced - why else would they move it up?
Tuesday - Profit taking correction higher ahead of and into the Fed and Goldman Sachs earnings
Wed/Thurs/Fri - plunge towards 190 as markets seize up again (Fed needs to BUY mortgage paper outright not just facilitate it)
Thurs/Fri - Options expiration and bearish extreme force short squeeze as sidelined money comes in

Dear Rahul and Stephen

Was looking at the charts and I see what both of you do. Any upward moves should be contained by 212/213 and downward should hit about 198.50/196.50. A rebound spike should hit about 203. At least my assessment of the 50%fibo was correct with Maratha but I didn't look far enough in the longer term to catch the trend line.
I also see the A-B-C or 3 out of 5 moves.
It's starting to sink in (slllooowwlllyy...)
Thanks for the insights (again, again, again...)

Hey GoodMorning Everyone...

Guys I'm looking at a trading platform which appears to show currency price movement over the weekend and I was wondering could anyone confirm where GbpJpy is right now. Today is Saturday here in the states.

Yes, it's 200.80

Darts are an entirely acceptable way of predicting price swings!!!!!!!!

PIPKICK THIS! LOL!!

Thanks bradrich
Stephen you just reading now that..... lol

must say that the target currency would probably be usdjpy. Those japanese cats cannot be trusted, but I do recall the price action last week and it seemed like some minor intervention was happening at the 10050 level. Why they have left it go as far as they did is ?????. The stronger the yen gets the more corporate earnings get slashed,(sound familiar?) Even the current US administration wants a weaker currency to prop up international companies earnings, as such props up stock market earnings.


As for the blondes...well, if you can make some dough on those trading ideas it should all fall into place.