Forex

sabastian · #51 (**permalink**) 03-16-2008, 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by juanzz

Here is a big loser!

I closed my GBP longs(March) @ big loss. It took away a good portion of my profit.

Thank God for saving my investment!
As I had hedged in EURO and made some profits from the June GBP , I could manage to bear this loss.

Any way, Congrats for all gainers and condolence for all losers including me! A coin has two sides. I am trying to learn from my falls.

At present I have three shorts in Euro and one long in GBP.

I am planning to square off the GBP long as soon as possible as I feel it will go down in the next week. I am trying to catch the first chance to get above 201.59 on Monday. I think it will happen once more before a long reversal.

And regarding my Euro shorts I am planning to wait the coming two three days.

See the following article from Daily FX:

"The EUR/USD pair continues to rally to fresh highs as ECB President Trichet’s commentary that the Bank is "concerned about excessive exchange-rate move" on Monday, the Federal Reserve’s attempts to restore liquidity on Tuesday, and news that Bear Stearns would have to be bailed out by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and JP Morgan Chase were not enough to provide a sustained boost in the US dollar."

And the news from Bloomberg:

"March 14 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush, seeking to calm investors, said policy makers will take ``appropriate steps'' to stabilize the financial system.."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...refer=politics

From the above statements I feel like the GBP will go down steep after testing above 203 (may be after one or two weeks) once more.

Any one noticed the change in the direction of GBP/USD and EURO/USD from 15.40 hrs. of March 14th? For the last few days both these pairs were moving in the same direction and now it seems to be in the oposit direction.

What it means? Will they go in the oposit direction in the coming days or it's just a correction move? Could anyone explain it so that I can save my hedged funds.

But the daily candles (Euro/Usd and GBP/USD) tell me that Both pairs may go down on Monday.

yes id agree and not always are the e and gbp correlated, if i was to short one and long the other it woould be the gbp and E respectively.

long long term by the end summer both the pairs look like they goin down, but for monday, $ may rally on the TICS. so short would be a good call for both the pairs., moreso the pound than the euro...
gbp onmonday, my call would be to wait for a good price to short, like id say on spot, _ 202.50 1 lot, average another if earlier in the day at 203, and another at 203.50., as towards the release of the tics, that bad boys goin down., to test 198. if not tom., then perhaps after the rate announcement.

good luck...

sunny · #52 (**permalink**) 03-16-2008, 08:34 AM

Cable is correlated with the others but when compared to EUR it is no match EU zone doesn't have the same economic outlook with real-estate prices ..etc

On Friday during the US session Cable crosses took a beating, EUR/GBP GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY. It was time to launch them into a new range. During those times liquidity in GBP/USD is thin and hence the huge movement of SL triggering.

CHF and JPY were the largest gainers as reducing RISK was the main driver for the rally.

Next week is big one for Cable a storm of data coming out which should paint a better picture for the outlook and give the market a better idea on what to expect in the next MPC meeting. Cut in May, April, or holding out further.

Moreover, Monday will also be critical with MPC min. being released. A 8-1 vote would be bullish others wise it could mean trouble and raise speculation for further cuts following the FED.

Friday price action implies the market is setting up for anything but 8-1 vote as profit taking and cross hammering took place. I would expect a rally if indeed BearFlower is the only vote on a cut and if he didn't favor that which is almost impossible I would expect Cable to EXPLODE higher.
But I don't think BearFlower will ever let go of his cutting stance, the Brit prof. based in the US is more influenced by FED mentality of "Soft Landing" than that of "Price Stability".

Play it safe run small positions and don't get caught in either side, it could move either way but as I see it there is much more room to the upside if News and data call for it.

david · #53 (**permalink**) 03-16-2008, 08:36 AM

hi there ,on weekly there is a spinning top candle, and retracement to 1.93 level is upon us over coming 4 weeks IMO (2.000 i believe to be tested this week atleast)..i agree there is potential to test 0460/0500 level before retrace..although i feel theres alot more potential that current high from friday will be the new lower top..mainly down to the lower trend line on the bull run from june 2006 (1.81/2.039)having not been broken although 3 attempts took place this last week..coupled with the fact that the bearish trendline from 2.11 peak of october and last weeks spinning candle converge on said 06 lower bull trend line..for me if it does bounce it shouldnt pass fridays high and i forecast weekly high of aprox 2.0350...time will tell i guess...but thats what i see via candles and current trendlines using weekly chart...if it manages to push through fridays high i would have to re-asses position,so im waiting to reach 2.0300/0350 before enter medium term short.

any thoughts and advice most welcome.

happy trading this week..

john4rex · #54 (**permalink**) 03-16-2008, 08:37 AM

My speculation is
Because US will go on LANDING

So GBPUSD will RISE up before going DOWN.
once more from 2.0200 to 2.0400 ?

BUT from the candle will go down, so.. better wait and see ?

john4rex · #55 (**permalink**) 03-17-2008, 03:04 PM

then, i should be prepare buying on dips.

david · #56 (**permalink**) 03-17-2008, 03:05 PM

Hey forex16,

so your candles for monday are you charging from now on?.and if so how are you going about doing it?

would be interested to know..

juanzz · #57 (**permalink**) 03-17-2008, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by forex16

start nexk week i wanna charge USD100 permonth...who's agree? and i will give the candle signal in private..

Best trading lesson from a best trader

juanzz · #58 (**permalink**) 03-17-2008, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sabastian

yes id agree and not always are the e and gbp correlated, if i was to short one and long the other it woould be the gbp and E respectively.

long long term by the end summer both the pairs look like they goin down, but for monday, $ may rally on the TICS. so short would be a good call for both the pairs., moreso the pound than the euro...
gbp onmonday, my call would be to wait for a good price to short, like id say on spot, _ 202.50 1 lot, average another if earlier in the day at 203, and another at 203.50., as towards the release of the tics, that bad boys goin down., to test 198. if not tom., then perhaps after the rate announcement.

good luck...

Thank u sabastian

sheldon · #59 (**permalink**) 03-17-2008, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by david

Hey forex16,

so your candles for monday are you charging from now on?.and if so how are you going about doing it?

would be interested to know..

so i guess we wont be seeing lovely as often as b4 in this forum
if lovely plan to charge 1on1...sigh...

again tks all yr great input. they sure save me quite few times
in my trading.

ppp · #60 (**permalink**) 03-17-2008, 03:21 PM

Hey david,
Be cautious. While lovely made some good calls, he hasn't been posting here very long. Only a couple of months and he wants to charge, tells me that was his plan all along.

I would suggest that you come up with a system that you trust that can be worked independantly of anybody else. This forum is good to see what others are thinking but ultimately you make your own decisions. Think for yourself.
Maybe down the road he starts wanting 200 then 300 from you, maybe not, but you shouldn't rely too heavily on other traders.

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