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traders at a seminar, "What is price?" some answer, "Price is a
perceived value." Others say, "Price is what a person at one particular point in time is willing to pay another person for a commodity." Someone says, "Price is what the last person paid for it. That's the price right now." Another suggests, "No, it's what the next person will pay." Traders who cannot give a clear definition of price do not know what they are analyzing. Your success or failure as a trader depends on handling prices-and you had better know what they mean! Some attendees at the seminars I give become agitated as they search for an answer to a seemingly obvious question. Arguments fly back and forth, as in this discussion: I'll give you the worst-case example. In the 1929 crash, Singer stock was selling for $100 and all of sudden there's no bid, no bid, no bid, and somebody comes forth-"I gotta sell, what am I bid?" and one of the floor clerks said "one dollar" and he got it. He got the stock. Price is what the greater fool is ready to pay. Take the '87 market. All of that 500-point decline - stocks weren't worth any less after the decline than before. So it was the difference in the perception and the willingness of the next person to pay for it. You might carry that one step further. What you're paying for is absolutely worthless. It is just a piece of paper. The only value that it does have is the intrinsic dividend value, compared to government paper at that time. It still has the value of whatever anybody will pay you. If no one wants to pay you for it, it has no value. It'll pay you for a yield. What if you trade soybeans? You can eat them. How about a stock that has no yield? But doesn't it have assets? The company that issued the stock has value, cash flow. I give you one share of IBM; if no one wants to buy it, you can light a cigarette with it. There is no such thing that no one wants to buy IBM. There is always a bid and an ask. Take a look at United Airlines. One day the paper says it's $300 and the next day it's $150. There's no change in the airline, they're still making the same cash flow, they've still got the same book value, and the same assets-what's the difference? The price of stock has very little to do with the company it represents. The price of IBM stock has very little to do with IBM. As I visualize it, the price of stock is connected by a mile-long rubber band to IBM and it can be wildly higher and wildly lower-IBM just keeps chugging along and it's a very, very remote connection. Price is the intersection of supply and demand curves. Each serious trader must know the meaning of price. You need to know what you analyze before you go out and start buying and selling stocks, futures, or options. |
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