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Beginners make the common
mistake of trying to follow too many markets at once. Some look for software to scan thousands of stocks and quickly bog down. Serious beginners should pick no more than two or three dozen stocks and track them day in and day out. You need to get to know them, develop a feel for how they move. Do you know when your companies release their earnings? Do you know their highest and lowest prices for the past year? The more you know about a stock, the more confidence you have and the fewer surprises can jump out at you. Many professionals focus on just a few stocks, or even on a single one. Which stocks should you track? Begin by choosing two or three currently hot industries. Technology, Internet, telecommunications, and biotechnology industries are in the forefront of the market at the time of this writing, but the list is likely to change. It always does. Pick half a dozen leading stocks in each of those industries and follow them daily. That’s where you’ll find the highest volumes, the steadiest trends, the crispest reversals. Several months later, after you get to know your stocks and make some money, you may be ready to add another industry group and pick its top six stocks. Remember, the depth of your research is much more important than its breadth. You can make more money from a handful of familiar stocks. The choice is easier for futures traders—there are only about three dozen futures, in six or seven groups. Beginners should stay away from the most volatile markets. Take grains, for instance. You should analyze corn, wheat, and soybeans, but trade only corn because it tends to be the slowest and quietest of the group. Learn to ride a bicycle with training wheels before starting to race. When it comes to tropicals, analyze all, but trade only sugar—a big, liquid, and reasonably volatile market, leaving aside coffee and cocoa, which can move as fast as the S&P. Needless to say, a beginner has no business with stock index futures, whose nickname on the floor is “rockets.” You may graduate to them in a couple of years, but at this stage, if you have an opinion on the stock market, trade SPDRs or QQQs, exchange-traded market indexes. |
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