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There is general consensus among students of the markets that, for
reasonable lengths of time, the markets exhibit behaviors that cannot be considered random or independent of a previous event in a given time period. Not too long ago, in the minds of many people, technical analysis was a field rated barely above numerology and perhaps a rung or two below alchemy Today, those same critics are beginning to acknowledge that the study of the markets from a logical, rational, scientific perspective is a valid field of inquiry-and one also with high stakes. In October 1993, the Econonist magazine published a survey on mathematics of the market. This rather lengthy survey noted that Wall Street was becoming populated with physical scientists and engineers, men and women who spend their professional careers quantifying events and elements in pursuit of patterns that help them understand the nature of the universe. Some resist the idea that quantifying market behavior-or any behavior-is possible. This is hardly surprising; many people resisted the ideas of Sir Isaac Newton when he described laws pertaining to the physical universe some 200 years ago. Likewise, Copernicus and Galileo met great skepticism when they employed the principles we take for granted today We know that novelty and validity are not always related, and so, some ideas that challenge existing beliefs can be difficult to accept. Describing the physical universe using quantitative terms has become a part of everyday life, yet describing the behavioral universe quantitatively is still something that many find uncomfortable. They see behavior as a matter of spontaneity and free choice. Quantification, however, implies patterns and order. Spontaneity and free choice exist within a patterned and ordered framework that is defined by certain laws. |
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