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Reality is the trader’s friend. Seeking market truth requires an open
mind and a confidence in one’s own foundation, so that new ideas will strengthen that foundation. Today we have access to excellent calculating and programming tools to quantify and study behavior The study of mass behavior and mathematics has continued to mesh since Robert Malthus published his landmark work, An Essay on the Principle of Population, in 1820. A Cambridge-trained mathematician and economist, Malthus drew many parallels between mass behavior and classical physics, often proving his claims to a mathematical certainty. As applied to the market, human behavior is indicated by price activity and its derivatives, such as volatility and volume. These are mathematical abstractions of this behavior; the human reactions to combinations of events relating to specific markets and to the physical universe. Traders can use the most modern tools to examine the markets scientifically and analyze this derived data in order to paint an accurate picture of market movements. This scientific approach is not beyond the reach of those with a basic foundation in math or logical thinking. There is hope for those of us who have had difficulty with polymer chemistry and partial differential equations. The market itself is not precise enough from the standpoint of the futures trader to require more than an understanding of the most basic concepts in elementary physics and introductory statistics. More important, is a commitment to logic and a good conceptual grasp of the structures and behavior of the market, i.e., mathematical intuition. |
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