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  #31 (permalink)  
Old 03-17-2008, 01:35 PM
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Originally Posted by forex16 View Post
stated earlier that the target is 95-96 for Doppy and I stick to it for now. Everything appears to be intact and AT made a great calculation for the short at around the 101+ level.
Technically we have yet another -&S that is now in play. Not so uncommon these days to see them work and not fake. The evidence is there to support the argument.
But I ask myself this question continually:
What motive does the BOJ have to intervene? They would be fighting the rest of the world who are dumping their $s including the USA.
It is financial suicide ATM to fight the trend and it has been for quite sometime now.
I would not be surprized however to see another signal short when the target is reached for more downside action. But I am looking for some consolidation when it gets there and I will be looking for reluctance to buy $ to confirm.
It is obvious that the US is using the $ and weakening it to compensate for Yuan strength and the balance of payments. They are determined in that respect and we know that it is not the first time in history the the US will 'cut off it's nose to spite it's face'.
History repeats itself.
However I think the chance of intervention is a dream as the CBs are clearly supporting and driving this move to curb Chinese financial power. Actions speak louder than words.
Yup, thats true
US seems to be left because of CHINESE YUAN.

I have a question
friday, all is strengthening vs US, only GBP is totally different.
Any idea why ?
JPY down to 98
EURO up to 588
but GBP down to 200 from 400....

if JPY and EURO could be that strong, the GBP at least went to 450 or 500 but...in fact it drop to 200.

Any info / data ?
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  #32 (permalink)  
Old 03-17-2008, 01:38 PM
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Originally Posted by bradrich View Post
Yup, thats true
US seems to be left because of CHINESE YUAN.

I have a question
friday, all is strengthening vs US, only GBP is totally different.
Any idea why ?
JPY down to 98
EURO up to 588
but GBP down to 200 from 400....

if JPY and EURO could be that strong, the GBP at least went to 450 or 500 but...in fact it drop to 200.

Any info / data ?
If you played Cable when it reached these levels before you would have noticed that it fell back dramatically to about the 1.96 area before attempting 2.10.
Beware it may do it again.

Fundamentally the UK also has a budget deficit that is not narrowing- so in the the same boat as the USA.
Europe is different for the moment and the budget surplus continues to be strong even France is beginning to narrow- but for how long no one knows.
Treat all major pairs individually as the correlation between Cable and Euro ended last year.
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  #33 (permalink)  
Old 03-17-2008, 01:41 PM
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GBPYEN is partly what got the battering and with both Current A/C and Budget Deficit bigger than US (as a percentage of GDP), coupled with an increasingly incredible government, I think Sterling is definitely set to lag US Dollar decline

The other currency that looks dodgy in this credit turmoil is the Kiwi and Dailyfx today has a technical piece on that. Certainly one can sell with a very tight stop (above the recent high) if one wants to get on board. Anybody got a view on this one?
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  #34 (permalink)  
Old 03-17-2008, 01:42 PM
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So another weekend went by, and no one came to rescue the dollar. The buck will have to do it all by himself
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  #35 (permalink)  
Old 03-17-2008, 01:45 PM
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96.58 i cant belive this
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  #36 (permalink)  
Old 03-17-2008, 01:47 PM
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Any trendlines ,candles and speculations for today
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  #37 (permalink)  
Old 03-17-2008, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by john4rex View Post
So another weekend went by, and no one came to rescue the dollar. The buck will have to do it all by himself
Well, weekend is still on and The Fed decided to screw the dollar further. It cut the institutional lending rate on this sunday and committed the moral hazard of sending a message that it doesn't care about USD anymore. This sent EUR to a new high past 1.58.
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  #38 (permalink)  
Old 03-17-2008, 01:51 PM
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Hey forex16,
sometimes we just gotta control our emotion trust our knowledge
and dicipline enough to follow...
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  #39 (permalink)  
Old 03-17-2008, 01:55 PM
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pls does anyone know where usd/jpy is heading.is it going up or it will drp the more and what impact will the intrest rate cut have on it tomorow.any idea.thanks
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  #40 (permalink)  
Old 03-18-2008, 03:36 PM
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my weekend is over
Its getting "better" every week, this market. I think I'll stay aside for now.
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