Forex

USD/JPY - 109.60 ... Active unwinding in yen carry trades due to risk
aversion continued to put pressure on the dollar n despite y'day's intra-day
rebound fm 109.85 to 110.73 in European session, renewed selling quickly emerged
n the pair fell again in NY morning to 109.12 b4 recovering briefly abv 110.00
on short-covering ahead of today's BOJ rate decision.

Today, although the greenback has retreated again fm o/n high at 110.12,
a breach of said y'day's low at 109.12 sup is needed to confirm recent decline
has once again resumed n extend weakness to 2006 low at 108.97, however, as
hourly oscillators' readings have already displayed bullish convergences, sug-
gesting downside wud be ltd to 108.50/55 (62% proj. of 113.30-109.85 fm 110.73)
n reckon 108.00 wud hold fm here, bring a much-needed corrective rebound later.


Therefore, wud not advise chasing current fall here n wud be prudent to
sell dlr on subsequent bounce as upside shud falter below 110.69/73 (present lvl
of 55-hr ema n y'day's European high). Only abv 111.12 wud signal temporary low
is made n risk correction to 111.50 but 112.00 (prev. sup) wud remain intact...